Sleeper Candidate: Miguel Sano

It has been an up and down start to Miguel Sano’s career. He signed with the Twins all the way back in 2009 when he was just 16 years old out of the Dominican Republic. The Twins paid a $3.15 million bonus to acquire his services. He steadily moved up the system to much fanfare, culminating with his call up to the majors in 2015. At the time he ranked as the 13th overall prospect according to Baseball America. Although Sano’s fantasy owners have seen polarizing results in the past, I believe 2019 could be one of his best seasons to date.

Before diving into the numbers, let’s take a look at a few off the field changes that could lead to positive results. According to bringmethenews.com, new manager Rocco Baldelli said, “It's all right there, and he's made his body a priority, and coming into camp and once they lay eyes on him and have a chance to see him, they're going to be very happy with what they see." This is the time of year when every single player is in “the best shape of their lives,” so this comment can be met with an easy eye roll. Sano’s body makeup has always been one of the biggest hurdles for him. He has never played more than 124 games in a season, and fantasy owners saw him fade fast in the second half of 2017. In 2018, a season that Sano only played in 71 games, he saw statistical lows across the board. There were numerous reports of him being out of shape, weighing as much as 290 pounds. One thing that compounded the issue was a major surgery he had in the offseason, placing a titanium rod in his left shin. Reportedly Sano has dropped 25 pounds heading into this season which seems to be a boost to his fantasy prospects.

Sano also finds himself as one of the “winners” of the offseason due to changes in his team’s makeup. While he did not change teams, the lineup around him seems to have improved tremendously. The Twins have added Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to a lineup that already ranked in the top half of the MLB in runs per game in 2018. This lineup has a chance to make noise on a nightly basis in this year, and Sano could find himself right in the middle of it.

While lineup changes and getting in shape are one thing, his advanced metrics seems to point to a bounce back season as well. There’s no arguing that last season was a house of horrors for Sano owners. Even when he was on the field strikeouts continued to be an issue for the power hitting third baseman. He saw his strikeout rate rise to a career high 38.5%, along with a career low walk rate of 10.4%. While getting on base has never been his calling card, his OBP was an embarrassing .281, well below his career average of .336. Part of this seemed to be due to bad luck as his BABIP was a ridiculously low .286. His lowest major league BABIP before that came in 2016 when it was 43 points higher at a reasonable .329.

While these numbers show that Sano should be getting on base more in 2019, we all know we’re not drafting him for his on base prowess. On draft day, we are investing in him for the power numbers that seem to have a sky-high ceiling. Once again, we can find career low numbers in all his advanced power metrics from 2018. His .199 ISO is well below his previous career low of .227. His slugging percentage was an abysmal .398, a far cry from his career high of .530. All this added up to an OPS of .679. Not only is this well below the MLB average, but it is well below his career average OPS of .813.

With a current price tag, somewhere around the 15th round, owners who invest could reap the rewards of a bounce back season. His new-found fitness and improved lineup has changed the climate for him. Even if we don’t see him have career high advanced metric numbers, a return to career averages would make him a great sleeper candidate. I believe any owner who grabs Sano on draft day will come away happy by season’s end.