No Draft for Old Men?

When it comes to the sports world, anything over the age of 30 is considered over the hill. There have been countless examples of athletes hitting their 30’s and their production falling off a cliff. On draft day there are numerous variables to consider when making a selection such as lineup, ballpark, overall consistency, and yes age.

When you see a player sitting there that has given great production but is 37 years old, it is nerve-wracking to know your season could hinge on whether that player can avoid the proverbial production cliff, or if they can keep chugging along. There’s also injuries to consider which only seems to be more of an issue for those elder players. I decided to take a look at 5 of these players who are 35+ as of opening day to see if we should be trusting them on draft day. Here is what I came up with in no particular order:

Nelson Cruz, 38

Cruz has seemed to be the Tom Brady of the MLB. The years keep coming and he continues to age like a fine wine, with the cliff seemingly nowhere in sight. Over the past 5 seasons he has averaged 153 games played. That is a great number to see, and let’s be honest on draft day we all know we’re drafting him for the home runs and RBI. Over that same time span he has averaged 40.6 home runs, and 104.4 RBI. From 2017 to 2018 his walk rate dropped from 21.7% to 20.6% but his strikeout rate also decreased in that time span from 10.9% to 9.3 %. The production and consistency has clearly been there. While his OPS dropped 74 points which would normally be an alarming number, it was actually right in line with his career average .860 OPS.

This offseason he moved teams, going from Seattle to the Minnesota. There are two main factors to consider here, his new lineup and his new home ball park. I believe the lineup will be an upgrade. In 2019, the Mariners averaged 4.18 runs per game which put them in the bottom third of the league. The Twins averaged 4.56, and sat 13th overall in the MLB. The Twins have also added a few bats this offseason in Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron. Add in what I think will be a big step forward for Byron Buxton and this lineup has the potential to put up runs every night. As far as Target Field is concerned, it’s not quite known as a home run hitter’s paradise. However, according to FantasyPros park factors, both parks rank back to back in home run rate. Furthermore, Target field ranks in the top 10 parks in the MLB for runs added and doubles while T-Mobile Park ranks in the bottom 10 in both.

Cruz is not only coming to a better park for him, and better lineup but he has also given no reason to believe his production will fall off in 2019. When it comes to draft day, I will not be shying away from him.

Justin Verlander, 35

One of the newer additions to the 35+ club, Verlander rebounded from a rocky first half of 2017 to absolutely dominate the second half as well as all of 2018. In fact, 2018 seemed to be his best year yet. He hit career best numbers in a variety of categories including a robust 34.8% strikeout rate, career low 4.4% walk rate, career second best 2.52 ERA accompanied by a clean 2.78 FIP and a career low 0.90 WHIP. One statistic that might be of concern is his career high 85.3% left on base percentage which seems to scream regression, but when digging deeper you can see he has consistently sat in the 72%-79% range for most of his career.

One of the major things I like to look at with starting pitchers when it comes to drafting them is how many innings they typically pitch. Pitchers who can sniff 200 innings consistently are a great bet on draft day knowing you can expect to have them every week, and in the playoffs when it counts most. Verlander has broken 200 innings an astounding 11 times out of the past 12 seasons. That is consistency you just can’t find anywhere else, besides maybe his old buddy Max Scherzer. All of these innings piling up could be of concern to some, but his underlying stats provided above seem to prove he has plenty of gas left in the tank. Wins is one of the least predictive stats in fantasy baseball. It is tough to think he will be anywhere but close to the top of that category come seasons end considering he has one of the league’s most explosive lineups behind him and he consistently goes deep into games.

While there are plenty of attractive options in the first few rounds as it pertains to starting pitchers, Verlander still ranks among the top shelf number one ace pitchers out there and I would be happy to draft him that way.

Edwin Encarnacion, 36

Encarnacion was a bit of a late bloomer. Him and Blue Jays teammate Jose Bautista both seemed click around the same time to haunt opposing AL pitchers from 2012-2016 when a championship window was never taken advantage of in Toronto. Since then Edwin moved onto Cleveland and the numbers haven’t followed. In fact, they are quite alarming and he is the first player on this list who seems to be falling over that proverbial cliff.

He was able to get through 137 games last year which is nothing to scoff at, but it also isn’t ideal for one of your power sources to miss nearly a month’s worth of games while you are trying to compete for playoff contention or roto category superiority. In those 137 games Edwin hit 32 home runs, drove in 107 runs, and crossed the plate 74 times. His home run total was the lowest since 2011 when he hit 17 in 134 games. His runs were the lowest since that same year although he’s never been drafted for that. His RBI didn’t seem to be a huge problem but were tied for 5th in the past 7 seasons. Also, he hit behind two of the best hitters in the game in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez so expectations were high.

The underlying numbers paint an even more bleak picture. His K% shot up to 22.8%, his highest since his rookie season all the way back in 2005 with the Reds. Subsequently his BB% plummeted to 10.9%, his worst since 2011. The biggest red flag is that his OPS ended the year at .810. Not only was it extremely low compared to the previous 7 seasons, but actually sat 40 points below his career average.

Further compounding his problems is that as of now we really don’t know where he’ll be playing. He was shipped off to Seattle in a three team trade earlier this offseason. There have been rumors that he will be moved yet again but nothing on that front has come up in weeks. If he stays in Seattle it is not a good situation considering the lineup, and ballpark he would be playing in. I will be staying far away from him on draft day in favor of other power options which is sad to say since he was one of my favorites to reach for early for a couple years. It seems the cliff has been reached for Edwin.

Jon Lester, 35

Jon Lester has had a remarkable career for somebody who was once forced to battle cancer. He has won multiple World Series, doing so both in the AL with the Red Sox twice and in the NL with the Cubs. 2017 was a disappointing year for him in which he bounced back nicely last year en route to a shiny 3.32 ERA, a full point below his 2017 ERA of 4.33. He will be a hotly contested pitcher this year in drafts. Although he hasn’t exceeded 200 innings pitched since 2016, he still has hit 180 innings the past 2 seasons. He pitches for a good team that fell just one game short of the NLDS last year and has a good lineup behind him. He is also part of that scary 35+ club which can bring on sweats on draft day when the clock is ticking towards zero.

The big question is if he will be the 2017 or 2018 version of himself for fantasy owners this year. My guess would be the 2017 version. While his 2018 ERA was a full point lower, it came along with a FIP of 4.39 compared to a surprisingly lower 4.10 FIP in 2017. That seems to point to a bit of fool’s gold when it comes to that shiny 2018 ERA. His K% sat at 19.6% which marked his lowest in 6 seasons, and almost a full 3% below his career average. His BB% was 8.4% which was the highest since 2011. Looking further, his LOB% was 80.3% which was by far the highest of any season besides 2016. When combing all of these numbers it seems he had a bit of luck on his side. Take away the traditional ERA statistic and he had a worse year in every statistical category than his 2017 season when fantasy owners came away disappointed that they drafted him.

While he is still on a good team, there is no denying that the NL Central will be one of the most competitive divisions in the MLB in 2019. It boasts some of the best lineups, combined with two of the best hitters parks in the NL in Miller Park and Great American Ballpark. On draft day I know that I will not be drafting him as it seems his 2018 ERA was more a house of cards than a bounce back to believe in.

Robinson Cano, 36

Here is another player that will be hotly contested going into drafts this year as he returns to New York but as a member of the Mets. He has always been somebody who has been tough to put a finger on. There have been monster seasons and disappointing seasons and to throw a wrench in all of it, he missed half the season last year due to a PED violation. I will avoid talking about his statistical totals from last year due to the lengthy absence.

When I dove into his numbers I expected to paint a picture of a player who has declined significantly and will not be worth much of an investment this season. What I found surprised me. All of his ratios are right in line with the rest of his career. His 9.2% BB% was actually the second highest of his career. His 13.5% K% is right in line with his career norms that have ranged from 9.3% up to 15.9%. His ISO remains consistent and his OPS was nearly identical to his career number of .848.

With all of the additions that the Mets have made, Cano might just produce another good season in the middle of what could potentially be a formidable lineup. While there is no way to gauge this, he might be more comfortable back at home under the bright lights in New York as well. While I would not reach for him, I do think he could be a solid option at the keystone this upcoming season for fantasy purposes. I would not let him slide in drafts and would be willing to give him a shot to rebound from his shortened season.